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  5. The effect of uncertainty of forecasting the reliability to the cost of designing a complex object

The effect of uncertainty of forecasting the reliability to the cost of designing a complex object

D.A. Bereznoi, K.N. Malovik
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The question of the cost for designing of complex objects depending on the magnitude of the expenses of creating the Forecasting System was described. The peculiar properties of complex objects were shown. The essence of reliability prediction of complex objects and the Forecasting System were disclosed. Definition and the goal of creating the forecasting system were given. The basic requirements for the forecasting system were considered. The main factors affecting the uncertainty of prediction of complex objects were considered.
Keywords: a complex object, the reliability, the forecasting system, uncertainty of forecasting, the efficiency