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  5. Evaluating of the efficiency of the project teams by the criterion of guaranteed results under conditions of uncertainty labor

Evaluating of the efficiency of the project teams by the criterion of guaranteed results under conditions of uncertainty labor

I.A. Gonchar, A.I. Lysenko, Yu.Yu. Zhebel
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In the stochastic formulation is solved the problem of estimating the quality of the project team based on their performance guarantee realization of a target date of the work packages of varying degrees of complexity in an uncertain labor executors of varying skills. The volumes of the work packages of varying degrees of complexity and costs of funds on their realization are considered as continuous random variables and follow the law of the beta distribution. According to the principle of guaranteed result the effectiveness of the implementation of the project is estimated by the ratio of optimistic estimates of the random variable of the total work packages to the pessimistic assessment of the random variable of the total expenditure of funds. The obtained results can be used in the formation of the project team in conditions of incomplete information of the person making the decision.
Keywords: effectiveness of the implementation of the project, the principle of guaranteed result, the law of the beta distribution, the normal distribution law, the rule of "three Sigma", mathematical expectation, variance, the standard deviation, pessimistic and optimistic estimates of a continuous random variable