The issues of forecasting of matrix element “break” related to the task of performance management of business process in a company have been considered. Exponential smoothing based on one-parameter Brown model is offered to use as a forecasting method for the purpose of the task at hand. Formalized procedure of smoothing constant determination for making forecast of time-series of parameter values related to the process being studied with evaluation of method error of the chosen forecasting method has been offered. Task solution is illustrated with an example.
performance management of business process in a company, prognostic maintenance, exponential smoothing model