The paper proposes a mathematical model to simulate the sequence of coefficients of conditional product output in the production of semiconductor materials. The model structure, parameter estimation were identified and the adequacy of the model was verified. And the method for combined prognosis enabling to get higher exact prognostication as compared to applied specific models of prognostication is developed. The developed model and method is used for operative management for predicting the coefficients of conditional products.
ARIMA-model, model identification, time sequence, hypothesis, prediction