Description: Obtained empirical equations specify a connection between the number of hospitalized patients with diagnosed ulcer disease per 10 000 population (morbidity level) and the number of hospitalized patients per 1 000 square kilometers territory (morbidity density) for various administrative division levels of Ukraine. In order to study the effect of morbidity density variation on morbidity level variation elasticity functions were determined as well as function of instant growth (dividers). A model was proposed for effect of spatial-temporal factors on morbidity level. Models were proposed for prediction of ulcer disease epidemic process (ulcer bleeding of stomach and duodenal) with due consideration of time factors and administrative division level. The proposed model quality was tested by retrospective forecasting method. The quality of ulcer disease epidemic process forecasting was shown to meet the requirements of practice.
Keywords: ulcer disease, ulcer disease of stomach and duodenal, spatial-temporal models, function elasticity, function divider, non-linear regression, forecasting, simple exponential smoothing