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  5. Estimating the probability of complex events in probabilistic economy

Estimating the probability of complex events in probabilistic economy

Yu.I. Lerner
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The method of approach to the determination of the probability of individual indicators (simple) and complex random events using the accounting methodology of probabilistic nature of the production of social and economic systems. In the framework of the application of probabilistic methods of economy this task takes you to the optimization of the parameters of social and economic systems, as well as to use, mainly for planning and forecasting methods of probability instead of the economy currently in use deterministic methods of economy. The task of determining the parameters of the distribution of complex events, which depend on the likelihood of occurrence. The specified method for determining the confidence intervals and event distribution methods for estimating uncertainty opriornoy. The article defines the expectation and standard deviation.
Keywords: deterministic and probabilistic economy, a single (simple) and complex random event, probability, confidence intervals, the algebra of logic