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  5. Method of forecasting orders on metrological service of military measuring measurements based on the system of interrelated equations

Method of forecasting orders on metrological service of military measuring measurements based on the system of interrelated equations

V. Kononov, V. Burtseva
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Description: The article proposes a method for forecasting orders for metrological service of military facilities of measuring technique, (MFMT) of samples of weapons and military equipment. Forecasting the number of orders for metrological maintenance of MFMT is an important condition for effective planning of metrological services. Existing methods for predicting the need for metrological maintenance of MFMT samples are based on the use of multi-factor regression models. But they did not take into account the question of the possible interdependence of endogenous variables used in the simulation of prediction tasks and which affect the volume of orders for metrological service of various types of MFMT. To solve that problem, a mathematical model for predicting orders for metrological service of the MFMT of armament and military technique(AMT) samples based on a system of interdependent equations is developed, in which endogenous variables (the number of orders) depend on the values of factors (the number of samples AMT) that are equipped with the corresponding types of MFMT, and on the values number of orders - other endogenous variables. For the application of the model need to evaluate its structural parameters. The article considers the necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of a system of interdependent equations, which is proposed for forecasting orders for metrological maintenance of the MFMT of AMT samples, and a two-step method of least squares is proposed, which allows obtaining unbiased and substantiated estimates for the evaluation of the structural parameters of a system of interdependent equations.


Keywords: method of prognostication, metrological service, facilities of measuring technique, order on metrology service, armament and military technique

Reference:
 Kononov, V.B. and Burtseva, V.V. (2017), “Metod prohnozuvannia zamovlen na metrolohichne obsluhovuvannia viiskovykh zasobiv vymiriuvalnoi tekhniky na osnovi systemy vzaiemozalezhnykh rivnian” [Method of forecasting orders on metrological service of military measuring measurements based on the system of interrelated equations], Systems of Arms and Military Equipment, No. 4(52), pp. 33-37.