Description: The purpose of this article is to solve the question of choosing a model for predicting the development of dangerous factors of emergency situations with dangerous goods. The subject of the study is a model for predicting the effects of hazardous fire and explosive substances emissions. The subject of this article is an analysis of existing mathematical models and computer programs for predicting the distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere. As a result of the study, an overview of various methods of assessing atmospheric pollution based on various mathematical models of turbulent transfer and dispersion of impurities of such substances was carried out for qualitative assessment of the situation, which is formed as a result of an emergency situation during the transport of dangerous goods, forecasting the development of dangerous factors of emergency situations with dangerous cargoes and decision-making in response to an emergency. Namely, such methods as: calculation by means of scattering models describing the processes of turbulent diffusion in the atmosphere (Euler models, Gaussian models, Lagrangian models), as well as models of atmospheric air pollution (semiempirical models, stochastic models, recipe models); software components based on basic calculation models (The most well-known implementations of the heavy-gas dispersion models are the World Bank methodology, HGSYSTEM methodologies, techniques developed with the support of the leading foreign research organizations of the TNO - the Netherlands for the Applied Scientific Research (Netherlands), Det Norske Veritas (DNV Technica) (Norway); RD 0326-2007 techniques and software systems TOKSY different versions, TOXI +, TOXI + RISK (Russian Federation), ALOHA (USA)). As a result of the research of various existing mathematical models and computer programs, it was concluded that they all have power and should be applied depending on the conditions of calculation, that is, the forecasting of pollutants in the atmosphere should be carried out not in one method, but in the chosen method of dependence on terms of calculation. Scope of application – rail transport.
Keywords: emergency situation, dangerous goods, modeling of the quality of atmospheric air, impurities of pollutants, processes of chemical transformation of impurities