1. Science
  2. Publications
  3. Science and Technology of the Air Force of Ukraine
  4. 2(31)'2018
  5. The method of the quantitative risk assessment of use of troops (forces) during disaster management

The method of the quantitative risk assessment of use of troops (forces) during disaster management

D. Suleymanov, A. Nikitin
Annotations languages:


Description: The analysis of existing methods for determining the level of acceptable risk for troops (forces) in emergencies are conducted and it is shown that their main problems are related to the use of a significant number of statistical and probabilistic indicators and cannot be used as ex-press methods in the planning of the use of troops (forces) in emergencies. The aim of the research is to determine the possibility and practicability to use the risk assessment apparatus in carrying out special and specific actions of troops (forces) in emergencies of natural and man-made nature. The possibility of complex search of solutions for use of forces (forces) during dis-aster management on the basis of a risk assessment is considered. This possibility determines the level of practicability of certain tasks and ensures the minimum allowable defeat of troops (forces) in the emergencies. The method of the quantitative risk assessment of use of troops (forces) during disaster management is proposed. The method allows to estimate and select the permissible concentrations of hazardous substances (doses) for the given values of acceptable risk; determine the values of the limiting values of the concentration of hazardous substances (doses) for troops (forces) in the emergencies; determine the values of the limiting values of the residence time in the emergency zones; estimate the stages and variants of the stages of the operation (campaign) during disaster management. The results of research in risk assessment make it possible to formulate scientifically based recommendations and propose practical measures to achieve an acceptable level of risk for both the personnel of the troops (forces) and the population affected by hazardous factors of the emergency, which proves the practicability of using the risk assessment apparatus.


Keywords: risk, risk assessment, disaster management, emergencies

Reference:
 Suleimanov, D.R. and Nikitin, A.A. (2018), “Metod kilkisnoho otsiniuvannia ryzyku zastosuvannia viisk (syl) pid chas likvidatsii naslidkiv nadzvychainykh sytuatsii” [The method of the quantitative risk assessment of use of troops (forces) during disaster management], Science and Technology of the Air Force of Ukraine, No. 2(31), pp. 160-166. https://doi.org/10.30748/nitps.2018.31.21.