Description: A comprehensive model for estimating and forecasting the effectiveness of the material support system is presented, taking into account its impact on the operational capabilities (OC) of the border guard unit, for which OC indicators have been introduced. The dependence of these indicators on the degree of completeness and timeliness of supplies of material resources is established. The model allows to ensure the timely delivery of material means in the presence of their random expenditure, and to calculate the necessary ammunition for border patrols, which allows them to withstand the battle with the enemy diversion reconnaissance group until the reinforcement approach. The further line of research can be the development of a methodology and computer program for solving the listed tasks of assessing the effectiveness, planning and implementation of tasks by the material support system of the border guard force.
Keywords: model, material supply, state border, battle, mathematical statistics, Markov processes, indicator and efficiency criterion