Description: In the article, it is examined the impact of factors on a successful performance and survival after forced landing of the aircraft on the water surface. Having analyzed the existing assessment methods, we focused on the method of the analysis of hierarchies that allows experts to arrange factors effectively according to its influence. Among the advantages of the method of the analysis of hierarchies, there are decomposition and clustering of factors and also the acceptability of a slight inconsistency. The research was conducted within accurately established algorithm while comparing factors according to their influence on survival during ditching. The scale of Saati relative importance was applied to conduct a pairwise comparison. We created clusters of factors, according to the stages of ditching and a source of origin of danger. Using decomposition from a complex factor “Landing conditions”, we created such clusters as “Meteorological visible range”, “External obstacles”, “Factors which can cause a mechanical damage of the AC fuselage during ditching”, “Factors which influence the survival while staying in water”, “Factors which interfere with process of selection of a certain water surface area”. Applying the complex factor, we determined “Suitability of the residential area concerning the assistance to the injured” – “Medical infrastructure”, “Specialized forces and means which can be involved to carry out search and rescue operations” and “Forces, means and constructions which use might contribute to the survival of those who were onboard”. As a result of the expert survey that was carried out among the group of experts consisted of 25 persons, by application of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and processing of the obtained data, we received the system of important coefficients among clusters, and factors which create certain clusters. Also, we offered the mechanism which allows quantitatively expressing the available factors at the moment of ditching. The received results will be used in the method development referred to the choice of the optimum place of the AC forced landing on the water surface and for the development of the decision-making system.
Keywords: ditching, forced landing of the aircraft on the water surface, a factor, the expert survey, analytic hierarchy process, the environment, the residential area