Description: The purpose of the article is to examine the model of stochastic assessment of the reliability of development options forecasting, which allows obtaining sufficiently reliable information, even in the case of pairwise ignorance of the signs of options. The method of comparing hypotheses about variants of investment of the means expected in the development of robotization and in the expansion of traditional types of weapons and military equipment was used to built a stochastic matrix of predictive values of the probability of realization of each option according to the rules of the Relay distribution of random source data, the costs of development of types of weapons and military equipment for each of the alternatives. The model of stochastic estimation of reliability of prediction of development variants is considered, it allows to receive sufficiently reliable information, even in the case of pairwise non-crossing of hypotheses (signs of variants). It is important that the predicted variants differ by at least one of the characteristics for each of the variants. Practical usage of stochastic model is to give the opportunity to the commander of the air assault unit to correct his decision in order to determine the directions of the further development of weapons and military equipment witch are available.
Keywords: alternative variants of military-technical development, armament robotization, statistical estimations, forecasting with intersecting hypotheses