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Recommendations for forecasting the volumes of financing the development of the armed forces of ukraine for a long-term perspective (2018–2032)

O. Semenenko, O. Vodchyts, R. Boyko, Y. Dobrovolsky, V. Ptashnik
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Description: In the article the authors present the results of forecasting: the index of the gross internal product (GDP) of Ukraine for the long-term perspective (2018–2032), the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; volumes of their possible financing as a share of expenditures from GDP. The forecast of the needs and possible amounts of financing was carried out taking into account the effects of limiting factors (inflation, the size of the public debt, the dynamics of the industrial production index, the balance of ex-port-imports) and without. Forecasting was carried out by extrapolation based on statistical data on the dynamics of Ukraine's GDP and indicators of financing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the previous long-term period (2002–2017). The results of forecasting make it possible to develop a number of practical recommendations on the calculation of the projected amounts of financing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the determination of the dynamics of their development level for a long-term period, both taking into account the effects of limiting factors and without.


Keywords: gross domestic product, forecast of the share of GDP for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, forecasting the dynamics of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, extrapolation method

Reference:
Semenenko, O.M., Vodchyts, O.H., Boiko, R.V., Dobrovolskyi, Yu.B. and Ptashnik, V.M. (2018), “Rekomendatsii shchodo prohnozuvannia obsiahiv finansuvannia rozvytku Zbroinykh Syl Ukrainy na dovhostrokovu perspektyvu (2018–2032 rr.)” [Recommendations for forecasting the volumes of financing the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long-term perspective (2018–2032)], Systems of Arms and Military Equipment, No. 3(55), pp. 114-121. https://doi.org/10.30748/soivt.2018.55.16.