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  5. Modelling and forecasting the level of the operational situation complexity in the area of the National Guard of Ukraine military units’ responsibility

Modelling and forecasting the level of the operational situation complexity in the area of the National Guard of Ukraine military units’ responsibility

V. Ovcharenko
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Description: One of the tasks of National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) military units is the protection of public order, as well as participation in operations to eliminate the consequences of emergency situations and restore law and order. In peacetime, these tasks can be performed by military units of public order protection and military units for operational purposes. The protection of public order is a service and combat task, and for its implementation, military units of the NGU regularly allocate a part of their personnel. This task is carried out in the form of patrols. The number of personnel allocated is determined by policy documents and experts. Preliminary estimates of the operational environment expected complexity, the degree of concentration of offenses of different types in different objects of the responsibility area, as well as the effectiveness of the expected the tasks result, are not usually carried out due to the lack of necessary indicators, models and methods for calculating them. As a result, the problem of developing a model for assessing and forecasting the level of operational situation complexity in the area of the military units of the National Guard of Ukraine responsibility turned out to be relevant. In analyzing the process of protecting public order, it turned out that its main participants are two main opposing groups - offenders and NGU soldiers who patrol areas in the region of responsibility together with representatives of internal affairs bodies. On this basis, for the first time, a gradation of the operational situation complexity levels was formed with an integral indicator - the current number of offenses and the corresponding number of personnel allocated from military units of the NGU for the protection of public order. Based on current statistical data on the number of typical offenses (robberies, thefts, murders, etc.) and the system of signs of the responsibility area (typical public places, their attendance, etc.) using a multivariate analysis of variance and multiparameter extrapolation in an artificially formed n-dimensional Euclidean space of area signs is used to construct a regression prediction model for the vector of each typical offense values.


Keywords: model, offense, protection of public order, Euclidean space, regression

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Reference:
 Ovcharenko, V.V. (2019), “Modeliuvannia ta prohnoz rivnia skladnosti operatyvnoi obstanovky v zoni vidpovidalnosti viiskovykh chastyn Natsionalnoi hvardii Ukrainy” [Modelling and forecasting the level of the operational situation complexity in the area of the National Guard of Ukraine military units’ responsibility], Science and Technology of the Air Force of Ukraine, No. 1(34), pp. 123-127. https://doi.org/10.30748/nitps.2019.34.17.