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  5. А two-level mathematical model for predicting the risk of accidents at a potentially hazardous facility

А two-level mathematical model for predicting the risk of accidents at a potentially hazardous facility

A. Malko, S. Artemyev, B. Tsymbal, О. Rybalova
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Description: To predict the risk of the accident at the potentially hazardous facility, the two-level mathematical model with random input parameters have been proposed. It is based on the system-structural approach, according to which the potentially dangerous object have been defined as the system consisting of different subsystems. The relationship between the vector of indicators of the subsystem and the vector of its parameters using multi-factor linear regression mathematical dependencies has been described. Application of the mathematical model provides the opportunity to determine basic qualities of the man-made component, as a complex system and allows to get the quantitative assessment of these qualities. By changing parameters of the subsystems and the interdependence of vectors of the subsystem indices preconditions and the risk of the accident on the potentially dangerous object has been determined. The prediction of the development of preconditions for the accident of the potentially dangerous object by changing values of time regression coefficients has been carried out. Numerical value of indicators has been determined by the computer simulation of dangerous processes of the potentially dangerous object and their functional elements in the application of the computer interactive systems of the engineering analysis. According to simulation results, the algorithm for managing the risk of the accident and the safety of a potentially dangerous object has been used, which includes performing certain procedures and the continuous monitoring.


Keywords: complex system potentially dangerous object, computer simulation, engineering analysis, multi-factor linear mathematical dependencies, random input parameters, subsystem vector of indicators, risk-oriented approach

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Reference:
 Malko, O.D., Artemiev, S.R., Tsymbal, B.M. and Rybalova, O.V. (2019), “Dvorivneva matematychna model prohnozuvannia ryzyku avarii na potentsiino-nebezpechnomu obiekti” [а two-level mathematical model for predicting the risk of accidents at a potentially hazardous facility], Scientific Works of Kharkiv National Air Force University, Vol. 1(59), pp. 98-103. https://doi.org/10.30748/zhups.2019.59.14.