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  5. Method for estimating the storage measures of the equipment airborne of the surface-to-air guided missiles for solving the problems of extending their assigned measures

Method for estimating the storage measures of the equipment airborne of the surface-to-air guided missiles for solving the problems of extending their assigned measures

B. Lanetskiy, I. Koval, V. Popov
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Description: To solve the problems of extending the assigned measures of the surface-to-air guided missiles (SAM), it is necessary to estimate the measures of their residual storage. In this regard, the article proposes a method for estimating the storage measures of the airborne equipment of SAM, which contains a procedure for two-stage estimation of the empirical distribution function (EDF) of the storage time of SAM before failure. At the first stage, a preliminary estimation of EDF is performed using nonparametric statistical methods. For preliminary estimation of EDF, the results of operating tests of the airborne equipment of SAM are used. Information about the service limit and a prior information about the probability of nonfailure operation at the time of commencement of operation and the first years of operation is also used. At the second stage, a posteriori estimation of EDF is performed on the basis of the renewed dependence of the cumulative failure rate on the storage time. The key distinction for constructing a posteriori EDF is that it takes into account a prior information about the reliability of SAM, which is available at the commencement and at the end of operation of SAM, and information that contains the results of operating tests, which are performed in accordance with the work program for extending the assigned measures of SAM. The research results of estimating accuracy for the storage measures of the airborne equipment of SAM using the known nonparametric statistical methods are given. A feature of the proposed method is that the possibility of using one or another non-parametric statistical method for constructing a preliminary EDF is estimated basing on comparison of estimating accuracy of the measures of residual storage necessary for solving the problem of extending the assigned measures of SAM. The point and interval estimations of mean residual lifetime of SAM for five variants of the initial data, which differ in the variation coefficient value and the observation length, are obtained. For each of the variants, two types of initial data are specified, depending on the beginning and the end of the operating test intervals. The article shows that the method of series transition to the new coordinate system allows to obtain more acceptable estimations of mean residual lifetime o estimation is the closest to the reference estimation, and the endpoints of its confidence interval cover the reference estimation with an acceptable confidence probability.


Keywords: extending the assigned measures, operating tests, mean residual storage time, empirical distribution function, nonparametric statistical methods, prior information, point and interval estimations

References

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Reference:
 Lanetskyi, B.M., Koval, I.V. and Popov, V.P. (2019), “Metod otsiniuvannia pokaznykiv zberezhuvanosti bortovoho obladnannia zenitnykh kerovanykh raket dlia vyrishennia zavdan prodovzhennia yikh pryznachenykh pokaznykiv” [Method for estimating the storage measures of the airborne equipment of the surface-to-air guided missiles for solving the problems of extending their assigned measures], Science and Technology of the Air Force of Ukraine, No. 2(35), pp. 119-126. https://doi.org/10.30748/nitps.2019.35.15.