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  5. Estimation of the efficiency of the use of information technology of automated forecasting of adverse aviation events in a flight

Estimation of the efficiency of the use of information technology of automated forecasting of adverse aviation events in a flight

Е. Gryshmanov, І. Khizhnyak, Р. Berdnik
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Description: For automated forecasting of adverse accidents in flight, the article proposed an approach based on the use of models and methods of artificial intelligence. The article in the framework of information technology of automated forecasting of adverse accidents in flight using deep neural networks shows the results of modeling the learning process of a hybrid neural network based on convolutional and recurrent neural networks using the Keras and TensorFlow frameworks to determine the optimal value of the learning rate for a certain number of epochs learning. The purpose of the article is to assess the effectiveness of the use of information technology for automated forecasting of adverse accidents in flight using deep neural networks. Using TensorBoard capabilities, graphs are provided for the dependence of correct prediction of adverse accidents in flight on the number of epochs of learning of a hybrid neural network to identify and classify adverse accidents from a particular alphabet of classes. The accuracy of forecasting adverse accidents in flight during the operation of the hybrid neural network using the proposed information technology was evaluated. A comparison was made of the results of evaluating the accuracy of forecasting unfavorable aviation accidents in flight using existing approaches based on neural network models of the classic RNN, LSTM, CNN and the proposed approach based on a modified neural network classifier using the CNN and RNN. The comparison results allow us to conclude that the application of the developed information technology, which implements this hybrid neural network model, allows us to obtain a gain in accuracy and completeness of the classification of adverse accidents in flight. Prospects for further research in this direction may be the development of proposals for software implementation of the developed hybrid neural network model as part of an intelligent decision support system for automated forecasting of adverse aviation incidents in flight.


Keywords: information technology, deep neural network, forecasting, unfavorable aviation incident, framework, efficiency

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Reference:
 Hryshmanov, Ye.O., Khyzhniak, I.A. and Berdnyk, P.H. (2019), “Otsinka efektyvnosti zastosuvannia informatsiinoi tekhnolohii avtomatyzovanoho prohnozuvannia nespryiatlyvykh aviatsiinykh podii v poloti” [Estimation of the efficiency of the use of information technology of automated forecasting of adverse aviation events in a flight], Information Processing Systems, Vol. 2(157), pp. 134-139. https://doi.org/10.30748/soi.2019.157.19.