Description: The article describes an indicator for assessing the options for rational distribution of forces and assets of its troops in ar-eas in the defense zone of the operational-tactical grouping of troops, provides considerations regarding its content, calculation (simulation) and further use in the interest of evaluating options for the method of defensive operations. As an indicator of the evaluation of options for the distribution of forces and assets in areas in the defense zone of the operational-tactical group of forces, the probability of retaining the entire defense line or keeping the line of defense in the direction of concentrating the main efforts is proposed. The indicator depends on the success achieved in the direction of focusing the main effort and the other di-rection. The probability of success of retaining the defense line in each of certain areas can be determined using the initial quali-tative ratio of forces and means of the opposing sides and the degree of the degree of fortification equipment of the defense line in this direction. The determination of the probability of success in each individual direction in the defense zone makes it possible to determine the probability of success of a defensive operation as a whole in the whole strip. The authors of the article view the success in the operation as a complex event that combines elementary events that are characterized by the success of actions in certain areas in the defense zone. In order to assess success in a defensive operation, in general, indicators have been proposed that are characterized by probabilities of the occurrence of final events. Such events define “retention of the entire defense line” and “retention of the line of defense in the main direction”. As an indicator of success in a defensive operation, the probability of an event that consists of two events is selected: “the retention of the entire defense line or the retention of the defense line in the main direction”. The indicator proposed in the article characterizes success in the defense operation as a whole in the entire defense zone, meets the main goal of the defense and takes into account the principle of decisive concentration of efforts in the chosen direction. This indicator is representative and can be used to evaluate options for the distribution of forces and assets in areas in the defense zone.
Keywords: method of conducting a defensive operation, direction of concentration of main efforts, another direction, grouping of troops
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