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  5. Methodology for determining an option for response by military management bodies regional administration on changing the situation at the state border depending on the forecast level of its complexity

Methodology for determining an option for response by military management bodies regional administration on changing the situation at the state border depending on the forecast level of its complexity

V. Kournikov
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Description: Operational and operational activities of the regional department of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine - a com-plex, dynamic process that is continuous, has a large spatial extent, is characterized by the tension of the situation (especially during aggravation), and requires the adoption of reasonable decisions on the use of a large number of dissimilar forces and means. In recent years, there has been developed a sufficient scientific basis for assessing the complexity of the operational situation in the field of public order protection and ensuring the security of the state border. Along with this, the development of a scientific and methodological apparatus for assessing the complexity of the situation in the area of responsibility of the re-gional administration and the corresponding response by the military authorities, depending on the level of its complexity, has not paid enough attention and needs further development. The material of the article is a continuation of the author's previous publications in which a set of factors (elements of the situation) was selected that would determine the level of complexity of the situation on the state border of the regional administration in the conditions of exacerbation of the military-political situation, their ranking and parametrization were carried out. The article has improved the methodology for determining the variant of response by the authorities of the military management of regional management to change the situation at the state border, de-pending on the predicted level of its complexity. For this purpose, Brown's linear model was chosen, which gives an opportunity to obtain estimates that characterize not the average level of the process, but the trend that developed at the time of the last observation. This allows you to reflect the development of a process that has no consistent tendencies. The chosen model is adap-tive and quickly adapts its parameters to changes in time series. The obtained result allows to assess the complexity of the situa-tion at the state border, make predictive conclusions about the dynamics of its development in the conditions of exacerbation of the military-political situation and make appropriate management decisions for the implementation (correction) of operational and service activities in order to adequately influence the threats that have arisen on the state the border.


Keywords: regional administration, state border, situation, level of complexity, variant of reaction, methodology.

References

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Reference:
 Kurnikov, V.V. (2019), “Metodyka vyznachennia variantu reahuvannia orhanamy viiskovoho upravlinnia rehionalnoho upravlinnia na zminu obstanovky na derzhavnomu kordoni v zalezhnosti vid prohnozovanoho rivnia yii skladnosti” [Methodology for determining an option for response by military management bodies regional administration on changing the situation at the state border depending on the forecast level of its complexity], Science and Technology of the Air Force of Ukraine, No. 3(36), pp. 132-140. https://doi.org/10.30748/nitps.2019.36.15.