Description: The article proposes an analytical-stochastic method for solving the task of assessing the impact of enemy forces and means of intelligence on the effectiveness of missile strikes instead of creating and using simulation models that require more time to prepare the necessary data for the use of rocket systems. The developed method allows investigating the influence of ac-tivity of forces and means of exploration on the efficiency of firing rocket complex. The criterion for the effectiveness of the com-bat mission of the missile complex is the likelihood of defeating the target. The probability of launching the missile complex to the enemy's fire, the missile system's uninterrupted operation during launch and the location of the rocket on the flight path and the probability of damage to the target in the case of failure-free operation of the missile complex are taken into account. The technical reliability of launching the missile complex characterizes the probability of failure-free functioning of the ground rock-et equipment of the missile complex, the absence of failures during the start, the absence of missile failures on the flight path and directly to the target. The readiness of the missile complex prior to the strike depends on the technical reliability of the rocket complex armament characteristics, on the effectiveness of the intelligence of the parties, which affects the possibility of defeat the rocket complex before launch. The technical reliability of the missile complex determines the duration of the missile complex preparation for launching the rocket, in the condition of failure-free operation at the starting position, the probability of no fail-ures, the intensity and time delay of the missile complex preparation when there are failures on the starting position. The deci-sion of the task of assessing the impact of the forces and means of reconnaissance of the enemy on the effectiveness of missile strikes has theoretical, theoretical and practical significance when planning the military application of existing and justification of tactical and technical requirements for the creation of advanced missile complexes or their modernization.
Keywords: intelligence efficiency, technical reliability, rocket complexes. imitation modelling, rocket attacks.