Description: The subject of this article is prognosis of the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment. Aim of the article is to study mathematical models and methods used for prediction of necessity of metrological service of military measurement means of samples of weapons and military equipment in order to find out required number of mobile metrological groups. Problem being solved – is to determine a model of prediction of amount of orders for metrological service of military measurement means, based on the systems of interdependent equations, with use of statistical prognosis methods, based on the systems of interdependent equations, where parameters of this model are evaluated by identification of the structure form of this model; linear multifactorial regressive model for prognosis of the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment and methods, used to determine the parameters of mathematical model, based on the system of interdependent equations, used to prognose the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment. In order to find out the parameters of models of multifactorial regressive independent and interdependent equations, it is proposed to use the least squares method. It is also proposed to examine unbiasedness, validity and effectiveness of the marks found out with the least squares method, for compliance with Gaussian-Markov terms. In order to find out the overall importance of regression equations it is proposed to use the Fischer’s ratio test, checking the importance of the parameters of regressive equations – by comparison of their real values with reference values of Student’s t-test. Summary: proposed mathematical models and methods used to solve tasks of prognosis of amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment are built with use of multifactorial regressive models based on systems of independent and interdependent equations.
Keywords: forecasting, metrological services, measuring equipment, weapons samples, military equipment, statistical methods of forecasting, multifactorial regression models.
1.The Order of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2017), “Pro zatverdzhennia Polozhennia pro metrolohichnu sluzhbuMinisterstva oborony Ukrainy ta Zbroinykh Syl Ukrainy No. 288 vid 24.05.2017” [About approval of the Provision on metrologi-cal service of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and Armed Forces of Ukraine No. 288 dated 24.05.2017].
2.The Order of the Head of the Central Department of Metrology and Standardization (2007), “Pro zatverdzhenniaKerivnytstva z orhanizatsii vyrobnychoi diialnosti viiskovykh metrolohichnykh laboratorii v Ministerstvi oborony Ukrainy ta Zbroinykh Sylakh Ukrainy No. 2 vid 14.05.2007” [About approval of the Manual for the organization of production activities of military metrology laboratories in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine No. 2 dated 14.05.2007].
3.Kononov, V.B. and Burtseva, V.V. (2017), “Matematychni modeli vyznachennia kilkosti zamovlen na harantovanemetrolohichne obsluhovuvannia zrazkiv ozbroiennia ta viiskovoi tekhniky z urakhuvanniam yikh vazhlyvosti” [Mathematical models for determination of the number of orders for guaranteed metrological maintenance of weapons and military equipment samples taking into account their importance], Information Processing Systems, No. 1(147), pp. 88-92.
4.Kononov, V.B. (2011), “Metodyka prohnozuvannia mozhlyvostei metrolohichnykh pidrozdiliv z vidnovlennia posh-kodzhenykh zasobiv vymiriuvalnoi tekhniky viiskovoho pryznachennia” [Methodology of forecasting of possibilities of metro-logical units for the repair of damaged measuring equipment of military purpose], Aerospace Technology, No. 8(85), pp. 231-234.
5.Kononov, V.B., Naumenko, А.М., Vodolazhko, О.V., Кoval, О.V. and Kondrashova, І.І. (2017), “Osnovy eksplua-tatsii zasobiv vymiriuvalnoi tekhniky viiskovoho pryznachennia v umovakh provedennia ATO” [Fundamentals of Operation of Means of Measuring Equipment for Military Purposes under the conditions of ATO], KNAFU, Kharkiv, 288 p.
6.Hurianova, L.C., Klebanova, T.C., Sergienko, O.A. and Propokovich, S.V. (2015), “Ekonometrika” [Econometrics],KHNUE, Kharkiv, 384 p.
7.Kononov, V.B., Naumenko, A.M. and Koval, O.V. (2018), “Zastosuvanya elektrychyh vumiryvan zasobamu vumiry-valnoi tekhniky v umovakh provedennia ATO” [Application of electrical measurements by means of measuring equipment in the condition of ATO], KNAFU, Kharkiv, 392 p.
8.Kononov, V.B., Naumenko, A.M. and Koval, O.V. (2018), “Priladobuduvannya ta zagal'nі principi datchikіv” [In-strumentation and general principles of sensors], KNAFU, Kharkiv, 64 p.
9.Кusnetsov, І.B. and Yablonskiy, P.М. (2009), “Orhanizatsiia metrolohichnoho zabezpechennia viisk (syl)” [Organiza-tion of metrological support of troops (forces)], NUOU, Kyiv, 356 p.
10.Кusnetsov, І.B. and Yaroshenko, О.V. (2009), “Orhanizatsiia zastosuvannia peresuvnykh zasobiv metrolohichnohoobsluhovuvannia” [Organization of the using of mobile metrological services], NUOU, Kyiv, 356 p.
11.Кusnetsov, І.B., Маrtcenkivskiy, V.Т., Yaroshenko, О.V., Buyalo, О.V. and Protsenko, V.О. (2011), “Udoskonalenniaparku peresuvnykh laboratorii vymiriuvalnoi tekhniky yak faktor pidvyshchennia operatyvnosti ta efektyvnosti metrolohichnoho obsluhovuvannia skladnykh system” [Improvement of park of mobile laboratories of measuring technique as a factor of increas-ing efficiency and efficiency of metrological service of complex systems], Collection of Scientific Works of T. Shevchenka Kyiv National University, No. 32, pp. 33-46.
12.The Head of the Central Department of Metrology and Standardization - the main metrologist of the Armed Forces ofUkraine Instruction (2006), “Instruktsiia z orhanizatsii roboty vyiznykh metrolohichnykh hrup metrolohichnykh chastyn vіd 09.10.2006” [Instruction of the organization of work of the visiting metrological groups of metrological units approved by from 09.10.2006].