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  5. Mathematical model and methods used for prognosis of amount of orders for metrological service of military measurement means of samples of weapons and military equipment

Mathematical model and methods used for prognosis of amount of orders for metrological service of military measurement means of samples of weapons and military equipment

V. Kononov, V. Burtseva
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Description: The subject of this article is prognosis of the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment. Aim of the article is to study mathematical models and methods used for prediction of necessity of metrological service of military measurement means of samples of weapons and military equipment in order to find out required number of mobile metrological groups. Problem being solved – is to determine a model of prediction of amount of orders for metrological service of military measurement means, based on the systems of interdependent equations, with use of statistical prognosis methods, based on the systems of interdependent equations, where parameters of this model are evaluated by identification of the structure form of this model; linear multifactorial regressive model for prognosis of the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment and methods, used to determine the parameters of mathematical model, based on the system of interdependent equations, used to prognose the amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment. In order to find out the parameters of models of multifactorial regressive independent and interdependent equations, it is proposed to use the least squares method. It is also proposed to examine unbiasedness, validity and effectiveness of the marks found out with the least squares method, for compliance with Gaussian-Markov terms. In order to find out the overall importance of regression equations it is proposed to use the Fischer’s ratio test, checking the importance of the parameters of regressive equations – by comparison of their real values with reference values of Student’s t-test. Summary: proposed mathematical models and methods used to solve tasks of prognosis of amount of orders for metrological service of samples of weapons and military equipment are built with use of multifactorial regressive models based on systems of independent and interdependent equations.


Keywords: forecasting, metrological services, measuring equipment, weapons samples, military equipment, statistical methods of forecasting, multifactorial regression models. 

References

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Reference:
 Kononov, V.B. and Burtseva, V.V. (2019), “Matematychni modeli y metody prohnozuvannia kilkosti zamovlen na metrolohichne obsluhovuvannia viiskovykh zasobiv vymiriuvalnoi tekhniky zrazkiv ozbroiennia ta viiskovoi tekhniky” [Mathematical model and methods used for prognosis of amount of orders for metrological service of military measurement means of samples of weapons and military equipment], Systems of Arms and Military Equipment, No. 4(60), pp. 73-80. https://doi.org/10.30748/soivt.2019.60.10.