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  5. Mathematical model of determination of probabilities of possible ecological consequences of railway failures

Mathematical model of determination of probabilities of possible ecological consequences of railway failures

М.D. Kacman
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The article considers the problem of forecasting of consequences of accidents and catastrophes of railway transport with participation of dangerous goods on the basis of models of the theory of mass service. The analysis of the processes of the development of accidents involving such cargoes showed that the natural environment has a certain degree of inertia of the response to the external impact of the dangerous factors of the accident, opposes it in relation to the change of their status and behavior, in other words, has the properties of inertia and self-healing. On the basis of the mathematical apparatus of the theory of mass service carried out a formal description of processes of development of dangerous phenomena of transport accidents. On a specific numerical example is considered the functioning of the two-phase system of mass service and established the conditions of catastrophic consequences depending on the intensity of impact of hazardous factors of the accident, inertia, and self-healing system «emergency mobile composition - the natural environment».
Keywords: ecological safety, dangerous goods, railway transport, the probability model