D.V. Karlov, M.N. Zhuravsky

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In the paper, on the basis of using information about ionosphere, obtained by means of radio waves incoherent scattering, the problem of detecting disturbances in the ionosphere is formalized within the statistical theory of detection. For this purpose we formulate within the method of radio waves incoherent scattering the model of desired signal and interference. At the same time, using classical verification procedure of statistical hypothesis under partial prior uncertainty, we synthesize the optimal algorithm for detecting disturbances by the minimum criterion of averaged posterior risk. We obtain an expression for the likelihood ratio and relate its dependence on the function of fluctuation dispersion in power range of the signal incoherently scattered by ionosphere.