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  5. Model of prognostication of the state of parks of aviation and special technique during the leadthrough of flights in an air-unit

Model of prognostication of the state of parks of aviation and special technique during the leadthrough of flights in an air-unit

A.V. Nikiforov
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The model of prognostication of the states of parks of aerotechics (AT) and facilities of the ground providing (FGP) of flights during the leadthrough of flights in an air-unit is offered. A model is built on the basis of theory of casual processes with the discrete states of object. It is rotined that for the processes of the annual planning in the air-unit of the state of technical parks adequately designed the systems of equalizations of Kolmogorov for a stationary case. On the basis of decision of this system of equalizations analytical expressions are got for the estimation of sizes of probabilities of finding of technical units of parks of AT and FGP in the set discrete states depending on the planned intensity of flights and volumes of logistical support of airunit. Expressions can be used as a model of the state of parks of AT and FGP at raising and decision of extreme tasks on planning of flying preparation.
Keywords: decision-making process, formalization, model of the state, criterion of optimality