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  5. The prognosis method of risk estimation based on fuzzy iference

The prognosis method of risk estimation based on fuzzy iference

E.V. Bregznev, A.A.Adamenko
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The using of Rule Based Fuzzy Models for estimation of project risk level in the stage of qualitatively-quantitative analysis is suggested in the article. The feature of algorithm fuzzy forward-chaining reasoning while solving a prognosis task is application of algebra of Ρ-fuzzy sets with membership function of interval form. The defuzzification approach is based on maximum criterion of middle of membership function.
Keywords: project risk, prognosis, unclear models of products, Ρ-fuzzy sets, functions of belonging of interval kind