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  5. The development of approach to critical energy infrastructure safety assessment taking into account human factor influence

The development of approach to critical energy infrastructure safety assessment taking into account human factor influence

Ye.V. Bregnev
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The combination of set of remote probability events such as hardware and software failures, natural disasters, human mistakes lead to the infrastructure accidents with severe consequences. Human factor has a dual influence (positive and negative) on infrastructure safety. There is a set of approaches to human reliability assessment. The multifactorial assessment is needed to obtain the valid value of infrastructure safety estimate. This assessment shall incorporate the human factor. Bayesian Belief Network is suggested as a basis for multifactorial safety assessment. The example of BBN application for safety assessment considering the human factor is considered for Fukushima accident. Two approaches to integration of probabilistic estimates presented in different qualimetric scales are given in the paper.
Keywords: human factor, critical power infrastructure, safety, Bayesian network of trust, cyber physicals systems