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  5. Method of cascading failure (accident) risk assessment based on application of dinamic criticality matrix

Method of cascading failure (accident) risk assessment based on application of dinamic criticality matrix

E.V. Brezhnev
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Cascading failures (accidents) bring the risks to critical infrastructures and their information and control systems (I&C). These failures are characterized by high severity of consequences, uncertainties of cascading mechanisms, etc. The method of cascading failures risk assessment under uncertainties caused by lack of statistical data is suggested in this paper. This method is based on application of linguistic approximation, which allows performing heuristic prognosis of cascading failures propagation. Uncertainties of selection of membership function are played down by utilization of interval fuzzy sets. The generic strategies of handling these risks are also suggested in the paper.
Keywords: cascading failures (accidents), risk, critical infrastructure, linguistic approximation, interval fuzzy sets