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  5. Autoregressive model: an integrated moving average in the problems of the expert forecasts formation of the quality indicator values for telecommunication systems designed

Autoregressive model: an integrated moving average in the problems of the expert forecasts formation of the quality indicator values for telecommunication systems designed

S.G.Kotenko, M.A. Mozhayev
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The paper describes the methods of creating quality expert assessments for telecommunication systems being designed using time series. A model of autoregressive integrated moving average and a scheme for a data-hold device for the indicator values are offered. With the help of the model of autoregressive integrated moving average one can obtain estimating prognostic values that reduce the degree of subjectivity in the expert report.
Keywords: expert report, model of autoregressive integrated moving average, Box and Jenkins, the Yule Walker equation